Rwanda Eyes France's 2027 Election as Candidates Raise Questions Over Future Ties

Rwanda is closely monitoring France’s presidential election scheduled for 18 April 2027 because of growing concerns that a new French president could change the relationship between the two countries. Rwandan media outlets, particularly those considered close to the government, have increasingly analyzed the views and political positions of the leading candidates to assess how they might deal with Rwanda if elected.

Political analysts say several of the expected candidates have previously expressed opinions that are viewed in Kigali as critical of President Paul Kagame’s government. As a result, there are concerns that a future French administration may adopt policies different from those of President Emmanuel Macron, whose presidency has been associated with a significant improvement in relations between Rwanda and France.

For many years, relations between Rwanda and France have been shaped by disagreements over the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsi, France’s role before and during the genocide, and the conflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). These issues have remained at the center of diplomatic discussions between the two nations.

After the genocide, the Rwandan Patriotic Front (FPR-Inkotanyi) government entered into a long diplomatic dispute with France. At the time, French President Jacques Chirac defended Operation Turquoise as a humanitarian mission while calling for investigations into alleged crimes committed by the FPR during and after the genocide of 1994. President Paul Kagame, who was then Rwanda’s Vice President and Minister of Defense, strongly rejected France’s position. Diplomatic tensions eventually led to the closure of the French Embassy in Kigali for several years.

Observers note that every French presidential election since the FPR came to power has attracted close attention in Rwanda because a new French government could decide to revisit unresolved historical and political issues between the two countries.

Among the politicians widely expected to compete in the 2027 election are former Prime Ministers Gabriel Attal and Édouard Philippe, National Rally President Jordan Bardella, Marine Le Pen, and left-wing leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Many of these politicians have publicly expressed opinions regarding Rwanda.

Rwandan media have focused especially on Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen. Although the National Rally has not made Rwanda a central part of its political platform, some commentators believe the party has consistently taken positions that are less favorable toward Kigali, particularly concerning France’s historical role during the 1994 genocide.

The Rwandan news outlet *Igihe* has suggested that Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Marine Le Pen could create greater challenges for relations between the two countries than Bardella. In 2011, Le Pen criticized then-President Nicolas Sarkozy for welcoming President Kagame to Paris. She described Kagame as authoritarian, defended the actions of French troops involved in Operation Turquoise, and accused Rwanda of unfairly damaging the reputation of the French military.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon has also faced criticism from Rwandan officials after referring to President Kagame as a dictator and alleging during a 2023 visit to Kinshasa that Rwanda sought to annex territory in eastern DRC.

On the other hand, President Emmanuel Macron is widely seen as having helped rebuild trust between Rwanda and France. Although several Western governments have accused Rwanda of supporting the M23 rebel group in eastern Congo—an allegation Rwanda strongly denies—Macron’s government has generally been viewed as taking a more balanced and cautious approach than many of its international partners.

According to political analysts, one of Kigali’s main concerns is that a future French president could withdraw the diplomatic support Rwanda has received under Macron, including support within the European Union. There is also uncertainty about the future role of Rwandan security forces protecting facilities operated by the French energy company TotalEnergies in Mozambique.

Despite these concerns, some experts argue that if Rwanda and France have truly rebuilt their relationship on strong diplomatic foundations, it should remain stable regardless of who wins the 2027 presidential election. They emphasize that in international diplomacy, lasting relationships are built between states rather than between individual political leaders.